Sales and Price Increase in May
June 3, 2011 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,046 sales in May 2011 – up six per cent compared to May 2010. This result was the second best on record for May under the current Toronto Real Estate Board service area. The number of new listings in May, at 16,076, was down 15 per cent compared to last year.
"Positive economic news and low borrowing costs led to strong sales through the first five months of the year, including the increase in May," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston. "At the same time, the market has become much tighter compared to last year, due to a substantial dip in new listings."
Homes were on the market for an average of 23 days and sold for an average price of $485,520– up nine per cent compared to $446,593 in May 2010. The strongest rate of price growth was experienced for single-detached homes sold in the City of Toronto.
"We have seen clear-cut seller's market conditions emerge over the past two to three months," explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "The robust price appreciation that we have seen will hopefully prompt more households to list, resulting in a more balanced market later this year," continued Mercer.
Median Price
In May, the median price was $400,000, from the $376,750 recorded during May of 2010.
Prices in Vancouver have gained almost 30 per cent in the last year, causing concern among many in the industry who are concerned about the sustainability of such gains. Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said while sales have softened across the country the risk of a sharp correction is “highly concentrated in geographical terms.”
He said while sales have softened across the country, the risk of a sharp correction is “highly concentrated in geographical terms.”
In March, CREA said the national average resale price was an all-time high of $366,000. But if Vancouver is stripped from the figure, the average price would be $327,000. Twenty two of the 25 cities surveyed posted price gains in March, with Calgary, Edmonton and Victoria the only exceptions.
CREA also added that sales would also be stronger than it expected in 2011, although still slower than 2010. It expects 441,000 sales will take place, down 1.3 per cent from a year ago. It previously suggested a decline of 1.6 per cent.
Forecasting has proven difficult for the association - in November it said sales would fall by 9 per cent. In the same forecast, it said the national average price would pull back slightly in 2011.
Private sector forecasts are also varied – Capital Economics has suggested prices could fall as much as 25 per cent over the next several years, while the major banks expect prices to moderate as higher interest rates keep people out of the market.
CREA president Gary Morse said mortgage rates “remain very attractive and are keeping financing within reach for many homebuyers.
Those rates are expected to climb, however, and while inexpensive borrowing has helped many homeowners stay current on their payments there are signs that they are under increasing stress. In Alberta, for example, the number of people three months or more late on their mortgages is double the national average at 0.87 per cent.
The rising rate of delinquency comes as economists warn that Canadians are under rising pressure when it comes to servicing debts. As interest rates move higher in the coming months, many could find it even harder to make their monthly payments.
In a statement Monday, CREA’s chief economist Gregory Klump said even if rates increase they will be “within short reach of current levels.”
“Continuing job growth will underpin housing demand, keeping the housing market in balance and stabilizing home prices.”
Fifteen per cent of Canadian homeowners took money out of their homes last year, at an average amount of $30,000, new data showed Wednesday.
New data from the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals Wednesday showed that Canadians took out $26 billion worth of equity from their homes in 2010, an increase on the $20 billion taken out in 2009.
The most popular use for those funds was home renovations, with 36 per cent of the 2,000 Canadians the group surveyed for the report saying that was their plans for the money they withdrew.
But investments (28 per cent) replaced debt consolidation (19 per cent) as the number two use of home equity takeout.
"As economic confidence returns in Canada, many survey respondents have told us they now feel comfortable using some of that equity to improve their homes and to invest," CAAMP CEO Jim Murphy said.
Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty are two high profile names who have repeatedly voiced concerns over Canadians' debt loads in recent months.
On average, Canadian homeowners have $222,000 in home equity, equal to 66 per cent of the value of their homes.
Approximately three million Canadians have no debt on their homes. And the report estimates that 79 per cent of mortgage holders have at least 25 per cent worth of equity in their homes, and roughly three per cent have "negative equity" — meaning they owe more on their home than it would be worth if they sold it.
The average down payment for a home purchased in the last 12 months was 30 per cent, up from 26 per cent for homes purchased two years ago.
Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,041 existing home sales through the TorontoMLS® system in April 2011. This result was down 17 per cent compared April 2010 when sales spiked to a new record of 10,898. While off last year's record result, April 2011 sales were in line with the average April sales level reported over the previous five years.
"Existing home sales have been strong from a historic perspective through the first four months of 2011. Expect the pace of sales to remain robust through the spring, as the economy expands and home buyers continue to benefit from affordable home ownership opportunities," said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Bill Johnston.
Market conditions tightened markedly over the last year. April 2011 sales accounted for 62 per cent of new listings during the month – up substantially from 53 per cent in April 2010. Tighter conditions resulted in the average April selling price growing by nine per cent annually to $477,407.
"The number of listings has been below expectations so far this year. Increased competition between home buyers has led to an accelerating annual rate of price growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "The strong price growth experienced in April should result in more listings and more balanced market conditions."
Median PriceIn April, the median price was $402,000, from the $373,000 recorded during April of 2010.
Canadians’ debt levels have made headlines repeatedly over the past few years. People are engrossed with how big our debt burden has grown, and what it means to the economy at large.
On Thursday, Statistics Canada published a new report on how debt is affecting Canadian families. It contains loads of data and below are some of its mortgage-related findings:
- In the last few decades, StatsCan says the general trend has been for “average household debt to move in the opposite direction” of interest rates. In other words, as rates fell, debt rose.
- Between 1984 and 2009, “real average household debt for Canadians more than doubled from $46,000 to $110,000, with the main contributor to this increase being mortgage debt.”
(Click chart to enlarge)
- In 1990, “total personal and unincorporated business debt was equivalent to 93% of after-tax income. By 2009, total debt was equivalent to 148% of income.”
- Research by TD Economics (cited in the report) suggests that “if interest rates rise by three percentage points, the debt-to-income ratio needs to fall to between 125% and 130% for interest payments on the debt to remain the same.”
- StatsCan says the Bank of Canada considers households to be “at greater financial risk if their total debt payments are equivalent to 40% or more of their income.” By that measure, StatsCan estimates that “4.2% of all Canadian households had a high annual debt load.” (4.2% is a lot lower than some debt commentators might expect.)
- While debt-to-income was climbing parabolically, the debt-to-asset ratio was relatively constant between 1990 and 2007. Then, from 2007 and 2008 debt-to-assets jumped by 2 percentage points to 19.6%, the highest level in 35 years.
Being interested observers of the housing market, we’re naturally inclined to wonder how rising debt levels will affect home prices. Interestingly, while debt-to-income is at all-time highs, mortgage affordability (which has a major influence on home demand) hasn’t strayed far from its long-term average.
The question is, what happens to affordability when rates climb further.
Other things being equal, for every 1% that mortgage rates increase, households with an average income and high-ratio mortgage can afford roughly 9% less house.
Unless incomes rise significantly (few are betting on that), a rate-driven deterioration in affordability could curb home prices materially...and much more than any growth in non-housing debt.
Friendly faces in a depersonalized, online world – that’s your local bank branch for you.
Branch staff are glad to talk about your financial situation, be it debt, saving or investing. They’re also eager to sell you stuff, so it’s important to know how to talk to bankers before you go in.
Online banking is flourishing in Canada, as well it should because it’s cheap and convenient. But there’s a back-to-the-branches theme to a lot of what the big banks are doing today. There are now 300 TD Canada Trust branches open Sunday. Bank of Montreal is installing free coin-counting machines in its branches to draw people in. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has just begun a marketing campaign that talks up CIBC as the place to go for financial advice.
Bank branches today are much less places to cash cheques and pay bills than they are sales centres for mutual funds, mortgages and lines of credit. Just recently, CIBC said consumer lending is the main driver of its growth plans.
One way to lend more is to attract new clients, something CIBC is trying to do through its Switch campaign. The basic idea is for people who deal with other banks to come over to CIBC for what it described in a news release as “expertise, advice and innovation.”
This represents a new phase in bank strategy. It’s no longer “come into our branches for advice,” but “our branches give better advice than their branches.”
People are becoming increasingly aware that they need to cut debt and save more, but lots don’t know how to do it. Banks can help.
Go get that help if you need it, but don’t go in uninformed.
Points to Remember
First, you have to understand that banks are essentially sales operations. We have lifelong relationships with our banks, we share private details with them and we sometimes depend on them in moments of stress or hardship. But banks place service to clients in the context of generating revenue and profit for shareholders.
You may hear the word adviser used in the branch, but that’s just a euphemism for salesperson in most cases. Some branches now include people with serious financial planning credentials such as Certified Financial Planner (CFP) or Personal Financial Planner (PFP), but even they’re subject to work rules that suggest it’s all about the sale, not the advice.
Beware of bank products that are highly packaged rather than straightforward. Wrap products are a great example. The banks are selling these prefab bundles of mutual funds like crazy today and it’s not because they’re better than building your own portfolio by selecting individual funds. Rather, it’s because wraps often result in a higher-fee mix of funds than having a customer choose funds individually.
Bank mutual fund families include some top-notch products, so don’t dismiss them. But be wary if you notice a conversation with your banker turning into a sales pitch to buy in-house funds. Be aware that you can open up an account with your bank’s online brokerage division and buy any company’s mutual funds, as well as lower-cost exchange-traded funds, stocks, bonds and term deposits with higher rates from other banks.
Whatever your bank recommends you buy or do, ask for hard numbers to document any advantage to you. Then, ask to have the same analysis applied to alternative approaches. When you’re done talking, go home and do your own research. Be sure the rates your bank is offering for both savings and borrowing are competitive.
Why see a bank at all for help with financial matters? One reason, frankly, is that going to a bank for advice is better than living in a state of uncertainty and inaction. Yes, it would be ideal if everyone who wanted advice used an independent financial planner or investment adviser, but that’s just not happening. If the familiarity of a bank branch makes someone comfortable enough to ask for help, so be it.
It’s also worth noting that the best way for banks to sell products is to keep customers and build relationships. Self-interested sales pitches disguised as advice are relationship killers.
Talking to banks
Tips for those seeking financial help from their bank:
1. Receiving advice of any sort does not mean you have to settle for less than ideal rates on borrowing and saving products.
2. Use the vast resources of the Internet to double-check the rates and advice your bank offers.
3. If it's all about buying the bank's mutual funds, flee (unless you specifically came in to buy funds).
4. Get in writing whatever your bank is offering you.
5. Be open-minded enough to recognize that you can get good advice from a banker.
Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 9,262 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in March 2011, representing the second best March result on record. The number of transactions was 11 per cent lower than the record result reported in March 2010.
"The strong home sales reported in March and throughout the first quarter of 2011 have been based on a solid affordability picture and improving economic conditions in the GTA and country-wide," said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Bill Johnston.
The average selling price for March 2011 was up five per cent year-over-year to $456,147. The strongest average annual price growth was reported for condominium apartments and semi-detached houses, at approximately seven per cent for both home types.
"Market conditions were tighter in March compared to last year. With more competition between buyers, we have seen a strong but sustainable rate of price growth," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Median PriceMedian Price In March, the median price was $385,000, from the $370,000 recorded during March of 2010.
As a whole, economists are all over the map on when the Bank of Canada will raise rates next. First-hike expectations range from May 31 to October 25.
For what it's worth, financial markets are now anticipating a September rate hike.
For those seeking additional perspective, here’s a sampling of the latest econospeak…
***************
“…over roughly the past twenty years, the BoC has generally avoided starting a tightening campaign in an election. It only did so in 1997, and that was because the economy was rapidly healing after the disaster of the first two thirds of the 1990s via over 734,000 jobs having been created in the back to back years of 1997-98. Now, if a May or June vote is in the cards, that adds to a long list of reasons why most analysts have abandoned much of any notion of a Spring hike.”
Derek Holt and Gorica Djeric (Scotiabank’)
“We take this opportunity to reinforce our longstanding view that the BoC is on hold until October of this year (or possibly later)...”
Derek Holt and Gorica Djeric
The argument for a near-term interest rate hike is now less compelling due to lower than expected inflation in February and a strong Canadian dollar.
Citigroup FX strategist Greg Anderson
CIBC says the Bank of Canada now won’t raise interest rates until July (it previously forecast a May hike).
“The bank may be reluctant to use the April meeting to signal a May hike, given that April will come in the middle of an election,”
CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld
“In a nutshell, we believe the market has overreacted by pushing the next Bank of Canada tightening out to October. Rates are far below neutral, the output gap is disappearing fast, and even the U.S. economy is rounding into much better shape. These factors should rule the roost by the time the July decision date rolls along.”
Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets
"If [the BOC] had any intention to raise rates in May, normally they would have sent a signal in the monetary policy review in April. But if that's in the middle of [an election] campaign, they might mask the language."
Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets (Canadian Press story)
"I don't think (the first hike being in October) is consistent with economic fundamentals. It's more consistent with a lot of the financial market turmoil and fears of issues in Japan and the Middle East accelerating. The bigger issue is the fact that growth is certainly stronger than (the Bank of Canada) expects."
David Tulk, chief Canada macro strategist at TD Securities (National Post story)
“..ongoing event risk associated with Middle East unrest and Japan's tragic natural disaster, the risk to the recovery posed by elevated oil and commodity prices and CAD strength all argue for steady policy through mid-year, which will be facilitated by tame underlying CPI and ample spare capacity ... we now peg the July of 2011 announcement as the first in a series of 25 basis point rate hikes expected to last into next year.”
Action Economics forecast
Finally, winter has passed and it's time for the much needed spring cleaning!
Flowers are blooming with birds twittering signals the start of spring and time to let in the fresh air from outside. It's such a refreshing time to let out the bundle-up winter madness and clean up the clutter to make room for a fresh new season. Most people would schedule their spring cleaning easily while others find it overwhelming especially if there are so many things to do. Working people would simply take a weekend off to do this task while others would even hire professional cleaners to do this for them.
Here are some effective spring cleaning tips that you can follow:
1. Organize. Organize your thoughts and plan of actions. In fact, it is recommended that you plan your chores thoroughly so you do not miss out on something important. Have your cleaning materials ready before getting down to the chore. You can start with the different bedrooms first then move on to the living room, dining room and the kitchen. Eventually the cleaning would end up in the attic or the garage.
2. De-clutter. This has to be done. Letting go of things not in use is important not only physically but emotionally as well. There are so many tidbits in the house that reminds you of happy and sad events. In fact, some people simply cannot move on as they have the tendency to hold on to something that is not good. Take the time to look over the things you are better without. Either you can give it away to charity organizations, organize a yard sale and sell it cheaply or the important ones can be kept for further use.
3. Store away winter clothes and things. Sheets and blankets used during winter time should be washed and store neatly. This goes the same with winter clothes like jackets, johns, and other winter accessories. It is important that you store your winter items in boxes or containers protected from mites and molds.
4. Heaters used should be stored properly and safely. Kerosene and other liquid should completely be emptied before storage and if possible, keep by the garage and out of the house away from open flames. It is also recommended to have professional gas service people clean up the furnace and other burners. After all, they were used the whole winter time.
5. Time to have the vents and air condition check before the warm weather kicks in. The first blast of air coming from unclean air condition would contain dust, dirt and allergens that you should avoid. Take out the filter and clean it up if possible; replace it if necessary. There are filters nowadays that are eco-friendly. You might want to get one of this to avoid getting spring allergies.
6. Clean up. Cleaning is not only on the outside but underneath the table, bed, couch and every heavy appliance where dust and mites have gathered. Use eco-friendly solutions to protect yourself and your family. Cleaning should not be overwhelming as you can always ask everyone in the family to do their share of work.
With these easy and effective spring cleaning tips, you are on your way to a clean and fresh place to live!
Discount brokers and companies that facilitate ‘for-sale-by-owner’ (FSBO) transactions have popped up in the last six months driven by a landmark deal that has opened up the MLS listing service.
Struck in October between the federal competition bureau and Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) allows realtors to offer their clients flat-fee services, including listing their property on MLS, which is owned by the CREA.
It means users are free to pick a la carte services, such as signage, a comparative market analysis, and webpage and MLS listings, to best sell their home for as little as $100.
That compares with full service real estate commissions which average between 3 and 5 per cent of the home selling cost. On a $300,000 home, the fee could range between $9,000 and $15,000.
Sure it’s a lot cheaper, but you also get a lot less help in selling your most valuable asset. Can you price it right? Can you close a deal by yourself? If the answer is confidently yes, then not using a full-service agent can save you a bundle.
Do-it-yourself sellers manage their own viewings and open houses. They also price their home without the expertise of an agent and manage negotiations with a potential buyer. Without an agent acting as the middle man, this can make some sellers feel awkward.
There are plenty of scenarios like this when an agent can be very useful and worth their commission. These scenarios include:
1. Pricing
In a market like Toronto, knowing how to price your home properly is crucial.
If you overprice your house, or don’t do a proper comparative market analysis to gauge the temperature of the local market, it can be “property suicide,” according to Von Stedingk.
A properly priced home can yield quicker offers, and get you the value your home deserves.
2. Location, location, location
Good agents are often location-specific and know the neighbourhoods and market of the area in which they work. This expertise can cut down time and help you discern what areas are of interest to you and what you’re looking for, and where buyer should beware. Without this knowledge, a buyer may get into an area that they thought was great, but it turns out, for example, there are noise problems or a high crime rate.
3. Time
As a seller, if you don’t have the time to host your own open houses, and coordinate times for potential buyers to view your home, an agent can be a blessing. An agent takes care of viewings and should host open houses that allow people to drop in and view your home.
4. Staging
A good agent has an eye for detail, and knows what kinds of homes sell. They can help you ‘stage’ your home and get rid of clutter and personal affects that may seem like a small detail, but could deter a potential buyer.
5. Legalities
If you’re new to the housing market or you aren’t familiar with the legalities or structure of a real estate transaction, an agent can be very helpful in navigating these waters. However, all real estate transactions require a lawyer, whether you use an agent or not.
Greater Toronto Realtors reported 4,138 sales during the first two weeks of March 2011 – a five per cent decrease compared to the first two weeks of March 2010. The number of new listings also dipped – down by 15 per cent compared to the same period last year.
"A positive economic outlook for the Greater Toronto Area, including steady growth in jobs and incomes, has kept households confident in their ability to purchase and pay for a home over the long term," said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Bill Johnston.
The average price for transactions during the first 14 days of March was $460,196, representing a 4.6 per cent increase compared to the first two weeks of March 2010.
"Market conditions are tighter compared to this time last year, resulting in more competition between buyers and sustained upward pressure on the average selling price. The annual rate of price growth is expected to range between three and five per cent in 2011," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Mortgage shoppers crave certainty, so they continually question brokers or bankers about where interest rates are headed. If this is something you’re prone to doing, first ask yourself if your broker or banker can predict the next global catastrophe, war, financial crisis, or sovereign insolvency. If not, you may want to rethink your question.
Unforeseeable events impact mortgage rates at unforeseeable times.
The events of this past week are the latest reminder of how fluid rate expectations can be….
A month ago, some economists were contemplating a BoC rate hike as soon as May.
Now, you see:
•the benchmark 5-year yield plummeting Wednesday to 2.43%
•deeply discounted 5-year fixed rates falling back to 3.79%
•market rate-hike expectations being pushed out to September/October (based on Overnight Index Swap [OIS] yields).
The prediction business is as predictable as it never was.
That’s not to say rate projections are completely worthless. Following the bottom of an economic cycle, rate increases are more probable and it’s useful to consider the magnitude of “reputable” rate hike forecasts. (You can define reputable. Some people use the Big 6 banks’ projections.)
From those forecasts, your mortgage professional can calculate how the expected rate increases might impact your future mortgage costs (and budget). Then they can analyze alternative rate scenarios, apply historical research, and factor in your risk profile & financial picture to recommend a mathematically sound term.
Just try to remember: When you hear a mortgage rate forecast that sounds plausible, distinguish if it’s a short or long-term forecast. Reputable near-term rate calls are more accurate. Moreover, each has different relevance. For example:
•Reading that rates may rise next week should have little impact on your long-term mortgage strategy—unless you need a rate lock soon.
•Hearing something like “prime rate will hit 6% by 2016” should go in one ear and out the other, given the enormous margins of error in long-term economics
To put everything in the present context, consider that the Big 6 currently expect prime rate to climb 200+ basis points in the next 24 months. They project 5-year bond yields rising over 125 bps.
Even if these ball gazers happen to be right, it doesn’t mean rates will escalate in a straight line. Long-term rate trends are always speckled with short-term counter-trends (some believe we’re in one now).
What becomes important is keeping short-term market emotion from steering long-term mortgage strategy.
Canadians are not only confident that they are assiduously paying down their mortgages, but they also believe they have the means necessary to weather a drop in house prices, contrary to worries that household debt is out of control, a poll showed on Wednesday.
Almost three-quarters of Canadians, or 73 per cent, believe that they or their families are well-positioned in the event of tumbling home prices, according to the annual RBC Homeownership Study undertaken by Royal Bank of Canada .
The poll found that 85 per cent of respondents feel that they are doing a good or excellent job of paying down their mortgage, while 90 per cent of Canadians are confident that real estate in Canada is a good investment.
“There’s been a lot of noise around debt-to-income ratios,” said Marcia Moffat, RBC head of home equity financing, noting that she found it comforting that such a large segment of Canadians said they were able to handle what is typically the biggest purchase of an individual’s life.
She said confidence was drawn from stable employment and rising incomes.
The survey was released a week after the Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a low 1 per cent.
The central bank and other policymakers have flagged personal debt as a danger to the economy, although the Bank of Canada last week said household debt was less of a concern than it has been in past months. Consumer spending remains strong but is easing to levels more in line with incomes, the bank said.
Worries about personal debt have twice prompted the government to introduce stricter mortgage rules to prevent overheating in the housing market.
The survey showed that Canadians, supported by a strong banking system, still have a strong interest in purchasing a home over the next two years. Interest declined slightly in the quarter, but remains high overall with 29 per cent saying it’s likely they will buy.
That was down two points from 2010 but is higher than any other year since 2006, the report said. Compared with last year, however, fewer Canadians said it was better to buy now than wait.
Rising home prices were the No. 1 concern about purchasing a home followed by rising mortgage rates, the poll showed.
The poll found that 40 per cent of Canadians feel the current housing market is balanced equally between buyers and sellers, a rise of five points over 2010.
Greater Toronto Realtors reported 6,266 transactions through the Toronto MLS® system in February 2011. This result was 14 per cent lower than the record sales reported in February 2010. But the average selling price was up and February 2011 sales were 50% higher than the number reported in February 2009 during the recession and slightly higher than the average February sales over the previous ten years.
“Continued improvement in the GTA economy, including growth in jobs and incomes and a declining unemployment rate, has kept the demand for ownership housing strong,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Bill Johnston.
The average selling price for February 2011 transactions was $454,423, which was more than five per cent higher than the average selling price reported in February 2010. “Market conditions remain quite tight in the GTA. There is enough competition between home buyers to promote continued price growth,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent probably took few by surprise: a Reuters poll found that all forecasters contacted were expecting the Bank to take no action. But holding rates constant was by no means the certainty that the markets seemed to think, even before yesterday’s strong GDP numbers.
The Bank of Canada’s job is really quite straightforward, if not exactly simple: keep inflation at its target of 2 per cent. This is not bureaucratic boilerplate; Bank officials will tell you the same thing both on and off the record. Policy debates are about how that target can be attained.
But the Bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report also projects that the output gap will be closed by the end of 2012, so it must presumably be planning to increase interest rates to the 3.0-3.5 per cent range over the next two years. The Bank generally changes its overnight rate target by increments of 25 basis points, so going from 1 per cent to 3 per cent requires 8 increases over the space of 14 announcements before the end of 2012.
The 2012 deadline is of course not set in stone; events could well push the closing of the output gap into 2013. But after four consecutive decisions to hold interest rates constant and yesterday’s strong GDP release, the odds of future increases can only increase: the Bank doesn’t want to raise interest rates all at once and at the last minute.